World War Four: Iran, Trump & Thomas Hobbes (Leviathan)

both in cinema and in video games it's
always a sign of bad writing when the evil villain is trying to take over the world or when the hero is trying to save the world in reality what we tend to deal with are empires with reasonable attainable objectives in their own immediately adjacent part of the world when we look at the map surrounding Iran we see that Iran is now facing off against two major rival empires there's the Empire of Saudi Arabia there's the Empire of Turkey and in the middle there we have Syria and Iraq to countries that are incredibly weak at the moment but could be strong in the future and looking back at the last twenty years Iran has in general been incredibly successful in increasing its power in both Iraq and Syria and I'm highlighting here the road that connects Iran to the ocean over around Lebanon where of course Iran as a client army sitting not so far from the border of Israel at all times now that's not the only client army that Iran has you've probably also heard about the endless wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran I can't even really call them proxy wars but Iran also has troops fighting on its side especially in Yemen lately so there's a real question here there's a sort of Great Powers standoff between Iran Turkey and Saudi Arabia up to this point Saudi Arabia has been the client of the United States of America Saudi Arabia has been the ally of the United States of America I think it's fair to say that the greatest unknown factor here is to what extent Russia and China will move to stabilize this region as American hegemony declines as the Americans withdraw their troops or just generally try to spend less money reshaping or dominating this part of the world now if you look at the front page of China's own YouTube channel CGT and there are we have a remarkable array of propaganda statements letting us know in absolutely no uncertain terms that china now intends to form an alliance with Iran the extent and nature of what that alliance will be we don't know but in any case China will take advantage of the current nadir of American politics in the region to try to set up some kind of friendly and cooperative relations with Iran it has become well known that Russia is playing a strategic role in Syria already but I think it remains to be seen to what extent Russia will also formalize some kind of partnership maybe with Iran maybe with Turkey maybe with both Turkey is expanding its power in Libya it's not clear if Turkey will contend with the other two great empires of this region more or less in the years to come so with this review of very basic facts having been accomplished let's just reflect on what Iran is and what Iran is now trying to accomplish Iran is not trying to conquer the world Iran wants to command and control that highway linking Lebanon to a fraud they are very interested in exerting power and influence and control over Iraq Syria Lebanon so on and so forth they are a regional power and they are an empire of sorts they're also very interested in advancing they're really centuries-long struggle against the hegemony of Saudi Arabia and I think Saudi Arabia has every reason to be afraid that if the United States does scale back or end its military and economic role in this region Iran may suddenly or gradually become the most powerful player on this particular chess board if you think about this highway this blue ribbon stretching from east to west and then think about the enormous expanse of Russian territory sort of running parallel to this highway but further north I mean most of it is off the map but Russia is Russian territory is poking down there around the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea and so on Russia also has a monumental task ahead of it in stabilizing the region now stability is not nearly so glamorous and ideal as democracy or freedom but Russia doesn't have a choice Russia can't just pack up its bags and go home no matter how evil we may regard this Russian mission to stabilize the region as being no matter how we may look down our noses at Russia's strategic role in Syria nevertheless Russia has a very clear mandate to stabilize the region and stability is something that 20 years of American imperialism have utterly failed to deliver very few people have read the philosophy of Thomas Hobbes I can say as a matter of fact that my own professors at the University of Toronto who taught the philosophy of Thomas Hobbes they themselves had never read Thomas Hobbes believe me I'm in a position to know that Hobbes is a very disturbing political philosopher for a young man to read obviously when I first read this book I was a teenager and I could not relate to at all the security Rhian hypothesis of Hobbes the attitude of Hobbes having seen the vicissitudes of civil war in England that stability was worth more than democracy he utterly laughs at the instability that the study of ancient Greek and Latin has brought into England with this ridiculous notion of democracy now whatever he might have privately thought about democracy publicly he saw the terrible reality that lack of a stable government brought into people's lives I heard an interview with a guy in Libya just on the on the normal news recently and it was very moving to me because the guy said having now lived through so many years of statelessness civil war just bad government or the absence of government now if he could travel back in time he would have fought on the opposite side from the side he fought on in the Libyan Civil War the the revolution if you like the created current conditions in Libya I was very moving to me because obviously this is someone he used to be an idealistic believer in democracy and who is now like Thomas Hobbes and ashin demoralized pragmatic believer in stability stability at any cost now what if stability means supporting a theocratic government like Saudi Arabia what if stability means supporting the eccentric religious government of Iran what if stability means a peace treaty with the worst examples of Muslim fundamentalist extremism in Afghanistan is that a price too high for stability well I have to tell you something I'm still an idealist I still think democracy is worth dying for and it's worth killing for but people like Vladimir Putin do not think that people like C Jinping and the leader of China do not think that C Jinping and Vladimir Putin are quite willing to compromise and come to cooperative political Arrangements with all of the religious fundamentalist dictators in this part of the world any of them or all of them for the sake of getting on with business as usual they have no interest in killing and dying for the progress of human rights secularism atheism science let alone democracy it's worthwhile to mention also that Iran has some democracy if you were going to rate democracy on a scale from one to ten you know how to know if Iran gets a four but Iran is more of a real democracy than China they do have newspapers that criticize the government they do have elections and so on and so forth Iran is very far from an ideal democracy nobody would compare Iran to Switzerland however nevertheless Iran has a somewhat democratic political system whereas China is an authoritarian oligarchy under the one-party control of the Communist Party and Saudi Arabia is also a monarchy a theocratic monarchy if you like but Saudi Arabia would be on a scale of one to ten Saudi Arabia gets a zero for democracy maybe China gets a one out of ten for democracy and Iran actually is somewhat more democratic than these other countries and the United States of America has the ultimate luxury of just going home I don't know if one day before I die it will be revealed who wrote the secret letter revealing that what they would withdraw from Iraq it would certainly be nice to know this is a voice of dissent within the Trump White House but what this letter says is what I'm sure many military experts in the United States are thinking there was a vote in the Iraqi parliament the Parliament of Iraq voted to request that America just leave that America withdraw its troops America just go home and the United States of America has the luxury right now of just accepting that offer accepting that opportunity and saying ok we'll leave because when you look at this map of the world again I've just described to you Turkey has its objectives Saudi Arabia's as the judges Iran as its objectives Russia also has some modest long-term objectives here ok what difference does it make to the United States of America if Turkey increases in power if Iran increases in power of Saudi Arabia increases or decreases in power America has everything to lose and absolutely nothing to win as the tides of empire go back and forth across this region it doesn't really matter if you regard Russia's motives as cynical or pious it doesn't matter if you regard China's motives as cynical or pious both in terms of popular democracy and in terms of elite level decision making the Americans have to look in the mirror and ask what is it we're trying to accomplish here what is it we're trying to win is it American national policy to promote a Sunni Islam against Shiite Islam and if so why is it American policy to promote the power of the House of Saud the the ruling royal family of Saudi Arabia as somehow being better than you know the elected leaders of Iran and the just barely elected leaders of Turkey turkey is an incredibly corrupt democracy but on paper is just barely a democracy rather the favored ship and so on what what is the agenda here in reality if America remains in the region they will gradually at the cost of billions of dollars per year simply end up adopting the same cynical posture that Russia already hands of just trying to stabilize the region enough to be shall we say good for business human rights and democracy sadly are not the business that any of these empires are in not the Iranian Empire not the Turkish Empire not the Saudi Empire [Music]